How we research, rank and review
The documentary review method behind our rankings of prediction markets and sweepstakes casinos, the criteria we use, and how money is kept out of it.
This page explains how Chance Ledger decides what is true, how we rank platforms, and what we have not done yet. It applies to every review, comparison, “best” list and landing page on the site.
The short version
- Our reviews are documentary reviews, built from official documents and public records. We have not yet tested platforms hands-on.
- We rank platforms on published criteria for each vertical, listed below.
- We do not publish numeric scores yet, because we do not think documents alone justify them.
- Every commercial fact carries the date we last verified it.
- Money does not move rankings. Sponsored placements are labeled and never change a platform’s editorial rank.
What a documentary review is
A documentary review answers the question: what does this platform officially promise, and what do regulators and courts say about it? We build each one from:
- The operator’s own documents: terms of use, fee schedules, sweepstakes rules, promotion terms, help-center articles and availability pages.
- Regulatory and legal records: CFTC registrations and releases, court opinions and dockets, state statutes and bill pages, and attorney general or gaming-regulator releases.
- Secondary sources, such as law-firm analyses and trade press, only when a primary source is unavailable. When we rely on one, we say so on the page.
What a documentary review cannot tell you is how a platform behaves in practice. We cannot yet say how long a withdrawal or redemption actually takes, how responsive support is, or whether the app is pleasant to use. We do not write “we tested”, “in our experience” or anything similar, because it would not be true.
How we rank prediction markets
We compare prediction-market platforms on six criteria, in rough order of weight:
| Criterion | What we look at |
|---|---|
| Regulatory standing | Is the platform a CFTC-designated exchange (DCM) or a registered broker (FCM)? Is it facing state enforcement, and what have courts ruled? |
| Availability breadth | In how many states it is available, and which product categories (sports, elections, economics) are restricted where, based on official pages and court orders. |
| Fee transparency and cost | Whether the full fee formula is published, and the actual cost of a typical trade at common prices. |
| Market breadth | The range of categories offered and whether there is enough activity to trade near the quoted price. |
| Funding | Deposit and withdrawal methods, minimums, documented fees and documented holds. |
| Verified-offer transparency | Whether any promotion has official terms we can link to, and how restrictive those terms are. |
Regulatory standing comes first because an attractive platform you cannot legally use, or that may be geofenced next month, is not a good recommendation.
How we rank sweepstakes casinos
Sweepstakes casinos do not hold state gaming licenses. They operate under promotional sweepstakes rules, so the questions are different. We use six criteria, with rules transparency weighted most:
| Criterion | What we look at |
|---|---|
| Rules transparency and recency | Are the official sweepstakes rules public, readable without an account, and recently dated? |
| Free-entry (AMOE) clarity | Is the mail-in method explained precisely, including how many Sweeps Coins each request gives? |
| Redemption minimums and terms | Minimum redemption for cash and gift cards, playthrough, processing time, identity checks and any fees, as stated in the rules. |
| Restricted-state currency | Does the operator’s restricted-state list reflect the laws actually in force? A stale list is a warning sign. |
| Enforcement history | Cease-and-desist letters, attorney general suits, settlements and verdicts involving the operator. |
| Eligibility breadth | How many states allow Sweeps Coin play, and the minimum age. |
The first criterion carries the most weight. An operator that publishes clear, current rules gives you something to hold it to. An operator that hides its rules behind a login, or whose state list ignores laws already in force, does not.
Why there are no numeric scores yet
Many review sites give each platform a score out of 10. We have chosen not to, for now.
A score suggests a precision that documents alone cannot support. For example, two platforms with similar published fees can differ greatly in how quickly they pay out, and we have not measured that. Until hands-on testing exists, our rankings are ordinal: a stated order with written reasons. They are not a calculated score.
When we introduce scores, this page will explain exactly how they are calculated. Each score will show the date of the testing behind it.
Verification dates
Fees, offers, restricted-state lists and legal status change often. That is why:
- Each brand record carries a last verified date.
- Commercial and legal pages show when their facts were last re-checked.
- Legal statements are always dated and sourced, as in “as of October 4, 2026, according to…”.
If a fact could not be confirmed from an official source, we leave it out or label it unconfirmed. The details are in our fact-checking process.
How commercial relationships are kept out of rankings
We may earn money when readers sign up through our links (see the affiliate disclosure). As of October 4, 2026, we have no affiliate or sponsorship agreements with any platform we rank. These rules govern any we enter:
- Rankings are set by the criteria above, applied the same way to every platform, whether or not we have a commercial relationship with it.
- Platforms without a commercial relationship are ranked and reviewed on the same basis. We do not drop a platform because it does not pay us.
- Commercial terms are never an input to a ranking. The affiliate and sponsorship flags in our brand records do not feed the ranking order.
- Negative information stays published. Payment cannot remove an enforcement action, a lawsuit or a limitation from a review.
- Sponsored placements are labeled “Sponsored” wherever they appear. A sponsored placement never changes a platform’s editorial rank. If a sponsored platform also appears in a ranked list, it sits at its editorial position.
If a commercial partner asks for a change to editorial content, the request goes to the editor, who decides it on accuracy alone.
Update cadence
Pages are scheduled for re-review based on how fast their subject changes:
| Page type | Scheduled re-review interval |
|---|---|
| Legal trackers | 7 days |
| Offers and promotions | 14 days |
| Reviews | 30 days |
| Guides | 90 days |
| Trust pages like this one | 180 days |
We aim to update affected pages outside that cycle when a major event occurs, such as a court ruling, a new law or a fee change.
Hands-on testing roadmap
Documentary review is where we start, not where we intend to stop. We have not set a start date for hands-on testing. When it begins, the plan includes:
- Opening funded accounts in eligible states, using our own money.
- Recording deposit methods, identity checks, and the actual time from a withdrawal or redemption request to receipt.
- Testing support channels with documented questions.
- Checking that published fees match what is charged on real trades.
When any of this begins, the affected review will say what was tested, by whom, in which state and on what date. Until then, the absence of a test is stated, not hidden.
Questions about our method
If you think a ranking misapplies these criteria, email editors@chanceledger.com. If a fact is wrong, email corrections@chanceledger.com; our editorial policy explains how corrections are handled.
Keep reading
Editorial policy
The standards behind everything Chance Ledger publishes, including sourcing, AI assistance, independence, conflicts of interest, corrections and news.
How we fact-check
The verification workflow behind every Chance Ledger page, including primary-source rules, how unconfirmed facts are handled, and re-verification cycles.
Affiliate disclosure
How Chance Ledger may earn money from affiliate links, sponsorships and ads, how commercial content is labeled, and what payment can never buy.
Best prediction market platforms in the US (October 2026)
The best prediction market platforms of 2026: five CFTC-regulated sites ranked on regulation, availability, fees, markets, funding and verified offers.
Best sweepstakes casinos 2026: top social casinos with cash prizes
The top social casinos with cash prizes, ranked on their published rules: free entry, redemption minimums and restricted states. Updated October 2026.
About Chance Ledger: Who We Are and How We Work
Who we are, what we cover, how we work, how we stay independent and what we are not. An honest account of a new research publication.
Contact us
How to reach Chance Ledger by email for editorial questions, news tips, corrections and partnership inquiries, and what we can and cannot help with.
Privacy policy
What data Chance Ledger collects, including analytics, outbound click events, newsletter sign-ups and cookies, how it is used, and how to contact us.